Westbrook going south?

We’re only in the first half of June, and I’ve already made my first major, first-round shake-up of my fantasy football rankings. Earlier in the spring, I was prepared to move forward with Brian Westbrook as my No. 5 overall pick. The Eagles bolstered their offensive line, boosted their “skill” positions with draft picks, and, on paper, appear to have a potential top-five offense. Why wouldn’t I be excited about Westbrook’s upside?

Last week, Westbrook underwent right ankle surgery. He had bone spurs removed, and the procedure itself isn’t a huge red flag. Westbrook should be back up to full speed in eight weeks, if not sooner, and he really doesn’t need the early training camp time learn the offense or otherwise prepare for 2009.

The problem is that this ankle surgery comes after an earlier operation to clean out his knee. And both procedures come after he had knee and ankle issues in 2006, knee problems in 2007, and knee and ankle problems in 2008. Westbrook has never played a full 16-game slate, but he is so productive in 14-15 games that fantasy owners can let it pass.

Who does that remind you of? How about Marshall Faulk? He was the darling of the fantasy football world during the days of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” and it barely bothered anyone that Marshall couldn’t play more than 14 games. That is… until all his knee, ankle, and other injuries caught up with Faulk.

Here is a quick comparison. The number in parentheses is the player’s age.

Westbrook
2006 (27): 240 rush, 1,217 yards, 5.1 YPC; 77 rec., 699 yards, 9.1 YPR
2007 (28): 278 rush, 1,333 yards, 4.8 YPC; 90 rec., 771 yards, 8.6 YPR
2008 (29): 233 rush, 936 yards, 4.0 YPC; 54 rec., 402 yards, 7.4 YPR
2009 (30): ??

Faulk
2000 (27): 253 rush, 1,359 yards, 5.3 YPC; 81 rec., 830 yards, 10.2 YPR
2001 (28): 260 rush, 1,382 yards, 5.4 YPC; 83 rec., 765 yards, 9.2 YPR
2002 (29): 212 rush, 953 yards, 4.5 YPC; 80 rec., 537 yards, 6.7 YPR
2003 (30): 209 rush, 818 yards, 3.9 YPC; 45 rec., 290 yards, 6.4 YPR

See the dwindling yards-per-carry numbers? See the falling yards-per-reception average?

Faulk managed to continue scoring enough touchdowns in 2002 and 2003 to make him a very good fantasy talent. We can say the same about Westbrook in 2008, as his 14 touchdowns overshadowed his shrunken yardage numbers.

Westbrook will have knee and ankle pain in 2009. That’s a guarantee. Will he successfully fight through it again? Consider me mildly worried. And I don’t want to have such nagging concerns about my No. 5 overall player. I’ve dropped him down to No. 13 on my running back rankings and seem to move him down one more spot every day or two.

Tags: NFL