NL Sleeper: Kris Medlen
February 16th, 2010 | by Ted Carlson |If enough people read my headline, it will no longer become valid. That’s the sad part about naming anyone as a “sleeper” – the tag no longer applies once enough people jump on board. Hopefully nobody in my NL-only league will read this piece because I love me some Kris Medlen.
The Braves sent Jair Jurrjens to the doc for a shoulder MRI today, and his injury moves Medlen once step closer to making more starts in 2010. On paper, the Braves currently plan to enter the season with Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Kenshin Kawakami in the rotation. Medlen is tabbed for a long relief role.
However, Jurrjens has this shoulder issue, Hudson is no safe bet for 32-34 starts, and Kawakami has worked 156.1 and 117.1 innings over the last two seasons. The young Hanson may be on an innings count, and the old Lowe could be on a short leash. In other words, Medlen appears to be one tweaked elbow or ankle away from joining the rotation – and I like his odds.
What happens when he pitches? Medlen posted a 2.46 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9 throughout his minor league career. His 2009 rookie numbers were not special – 4.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP – but he managed a 9.6 K/9 and settled down after a rocky start. Medlen posted a 6.12 ERA over his first seven major league appearances. He managed a 2.95 ERA during his last 30 appearances. Medlen also boasted a 3.35 FIP mark – which means he was a lot better than that 4.26 ERA.
What could he produce in a mixed (starter/reliever) role? I believe a repeat of his 2008 numbers at Double-A is reasonable:
36 games, 17 starts, 7-8, 120.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 120 K
I’m not sure Medlen will reach 17 starts and 120 innings, but those totals are possible given the fragile nature of pitchers and who is blocking his way to the rotation. Would you settle for those ERA, WHIP and K/9 rates over, say, 10-12 starts and 100 innings?
Many of my colleagues have played in NL-only leagues longer than I have, but I believe any NL-only fantasy owner would love to turn a cheap, late-round pick into those digits.
Tags: MLB
